⏱️ El Niño is back and plastic pollution is out
Temperatures will likely increase over the next five years and the UN has an ambitious plan to reduce plastic pollution by 80% by 2040
Hello there,
I remember hearing about “El Niño” on the news as a kid and I have a vague memory of what I thought it meant: A) it was something that just occurred from time to time so when it did, it was kind of special, and B) that it somehow affected the weather and made the weatherman on the Swedish news gesticulate intensively across his map.
Well, this week the World Meteorological Organization issued an update saying that global temperatures are likely to reach record levels in the next five years due to man-made climate change combined with the next episode of El Niño. Here’s what they predict:
There is a 98% chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed the hottest year on record, 2016.
The average temperature from 2023 to 2027 will almost certainly be the warmest for a five-year period ever recorded.
There is also a 75% chance that one of the next five years could at least briefly breach the 1.5°C target laid out in the Paris Agreement. Although that wouldn’t mean we’re doomed as scientists look at these “temperature thresholds” over at least two decades in order to rule out natural variability.
🤔 What is El Niño anyways?
Maybe you spent more of your childhood studying this interesting weather phenomenon than I did, but for those of you who also preferred to play with insects here’s a quick rundown.
El Niño is a climate pattern referring to the warming of the sea surface temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It’s the “warm phase” of a larger phenomenon called El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and yes, it has a baby sister called La Niña which is the “cool phase” of this phenomenon.
Scientists predict this cooling phase is just coming to an end and that’s why we’re in for even more heat. Global temperatures tend to increase by about 0.2°C during El Niño and fall by about 0.2°C during La Niña. So that’s some of the basic math.
El Niño is declared when sea temperatures (so not global temperatures as we discussed above) in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5°C above the long-term average. El Niño is felt strongly in the tropical eastern Pacific, often causing stronger storms and more floods in Peru and Ecuador, but also more droughts and wildfires in countries like Indonesia and Australia.
So to sum it up, El Niño has an impact on ocean temperatures, the speed and strength of ocean currents, and therefore on the weather across the whole globe. El Niño events occur irregularly at two- to seven-year intervals which unfortunately are difficult to predict. Here’s a video from the Met Office if you want to get even nerdier:
⏰ Plastic could be on its way out
Global plastic pollution could be slashed by 80% by 2040 if countries and companies make serious policy and market changes, according to a new report by UN Environment Programme.
Right now, we produce about 430 million tons of plastics every year and two-thirds are short-lived products that quickly become waste. If things continue along this line, production is set to triple by 2060.
However, the report says we need systems-wide change to address the causes of plastic pollution. The first step would be to reduce problematic and unnecessary plastic use, and secondly, to increase the reuse of plastics and boost recycling. UNEP wants the ‘throwaway economy’ to become a ‘reuse society’ where reusing plastic makes more economic sense than throwing it away.
“The way we produce, use, and dispose of plastics is polluting ecosystems, creating risks for human health, and destabilizing the climate,” said Inger Andersen, UNEP’s Executive Director.
The report clearly outlines what needs to happen, and what we all can do to tackle plastic pollution.
↪️ Reuse: Promoting reuse options such as refillable bottles, bulk dispensers, and deposit-return schemes can reduce 30% of plastic pollution by 2040.
♻️ Recycle: Reducing plastic pollution by another 20% by 2040 can be achieved if recycling becomes a more stable and profitable venture. That includes scrapping fossil fuels subsidies.
💚 Reorient and diversify: Replacing products such as plastic wrappers and takeaway items with products made from alternative materials such as paper or compostable materials can deliver an additional 17% decrease in plastic pollution.
👉 Climate stat of the week: A study from the Union of Concerned Scientists (I kind of love that name?) found that over a third of the area burned by wildfires in the Western US and Canada since 1986 is the result of emissions from 88 fossil fuel and cement companies. Plainly speaking, that means coal, oil, and gas companies are now directly linked to worsening forest fires across the Western US.
🇨🇦 A climate impact letter from Western Canada
I’m really excited to introduce this new section and our inaugural climate impact letter writer Katrina Lane, a freelance writer, journalist, and editor passionate about finding sustainable and holistic solutions to pressing environmental issues. This is her letter:
Above the vast ground of Western Canada, we find ourselves immersed in the shifting dance of seasons. Today, I want to shed some light on the impact of early snowmelt on soil fertility, a phenomenon that raises concern but also presents an opportunity for proactive solutions.
As climate change unfolds, we witness the emergence of unpredictable weather patterns. One noticeable change here in Canada is a reduction in the snow-covered period, which had decreased by 5% to 10% per decade, accompanied by an earlier arrival of snowmelt.
As the snow retreats prematurely, the land quenches its thirst in the sudden excess of moisture. And with this seemingly innocent embrace, a delicate balance is disrupted. Depending on the soil texture, water can drain nutrients deep into the ground, where they are less accessible to plant roots. This can also present another challenge — the loss of the soil’s buffering capacity. Excess water from early snowmelt leaves the terrain vulnerable to flooding, impacting nutrient cycling throughout the ecosystem, and affecting plant growth.
In Canada, snowmelt is a primary source of irrigation and farmers heavily rely on accurate runoff forecasts to plan their irrigation strategies. Addressing the shifting patterns will be crucial for our long-term food security.
Amidst these changing snowmelt patterns lies an invitation to action. Experts and practitioners advocate for more sustainable land management practices to create more resilient soils. Some of the solutions under exploration include:
Cover cropping to improve soil moisture: Planting specific crops between cash crops to protect the soil (more on this below!)
Conservation tillage to combat sediment and nutrient losses: Utilizing reduced or no-till farming methods to minimize soil erosion and preserve soil health.
Rotational tillage to reduce phosphorus loss: Alternating tillage practices between different areas of a field to manage nutrient levels and reduce nutrient pollution in water.
Water conservation and management techniques: Employing practices such as precision irrigation, rainwater harvesting, and efficient water usage.
Climate jargon of the week
🌱 Cover cropping
In agriculture, cover crops are plants that are planted to cover the soil rather than for the purpose of being harvested. They can be seen as a long-term investment in improved soil health and farm management. Cover crops can help with many things including slowing erosion, improving soil health, enhancing water availability, helping to control pests and diseases, and even increasing biodiversity on a farm.
Here’s a video of a farmer called Cody talking about how he uses cover crops on his farm in Gainesville, Florida. He might also mention beets that look like aliens.